Clean price history
Price series are aligned to the same calendar, rolled consistently across contract months and checked for gaps and errors.
Commercial & trading analytics
Price forecasting & forward curve analysis
Hedging with swaps, futures and options is a question of timing as much as price. We build machine-learning models on your historical price data and the fundamentals behind it, project forward curves with an honest range around them, and show how today’s market curve compares, so the desk can decide when to hedge and how much.
Typical first version
8 – 12 weeks
Stated as a range. The two-week assessment narrows it.
The problem
Where it hurts today
- Forward views are formed from memory and broker notes, and are hard to compare over time.
- Nobody can say how accurate last quarter’s price view turned out to be.
- Hedging decisions are made on the day, without a consistent view of the curve.
Data we bring together
- Historical spot and futures prices
- Forward and swap curves
- Inventories, refinery runs and supply data
- Spreads and cracks
- Freight and currency series
- Your hedge book and exposure
How Azico builds it
Four stages, each one usable on its own
Fundamental drivers
We test which supply, demand and spread signals actually helped explain past moves, and leave out the ones that did not.
Forecast with ranges
Models project prices and curve shape over the horizons you hedge, each point with a confidence band rather than a single number.
Track record
Every forecast is stored and compared with what happened, so the desk can see where the model is reliable and where it is not.
What your team sees
- +Projected forward curve against the market curve
- +Forecast ranges by month and product
- +Which drivers moved the forecast this week
- +Forecast accuracy over time
Questions it answers
- “Is the market curve above or below our central view for Q2?”
- “How confident is the model three months out?”
- “Has our timing on hedges improved since we started?”
What we need from you
- Price and curve history from your data providers
- Your current view or method, for comparison
- The horizons and products you hedge
- A trader or risk manager to review results
Commercial & trading analytics
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Azico Analytics is a Bangalore-based team of experienced data professionals. Share how your data is managed today, how your reports are produced and the challenges you face. We will assess your requirements objectively and set out where we can add value, with a practical approach tailored to your business.